PAUL The octopus(He can Predict future events?)

Paul (octopus)

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Paul

Paul in his tank, next to a football boot with the German flag colours
Other appellation(s) Paul Oktopus
Paul der Krake
Species Octopus vulgaris
Sex Male
Born January 2008
Weymouth, Dorset
Occupation Exhibit
Psychic Football Pundit 2008-2010
Known for Predicting results of Germany's football matches
Owner Sea Life Centres (aquarium keeper: Oliver Walenciak)
Named after A poem by Boy Lornsen, Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus
Paul (hatched January 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, who is an animal oracle and now retired predictor of football matches, usually international matches in which Germany was playing. He came to worldwide attention with his 100% accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup.

During a divination, Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. He chose the box with the flag of the winning team in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He correctly predicted a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.[1] His predictions have thus been 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall. Paul was retired after the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Contents

1 Life
2 Divination
2.1 Potential biases
3 Results
3.1 2010 FIFA World Cup
3.2 Results involving Germany
3.3 Results not involving Germany
3.4 Odds
4 Retirement
5 Similar oracles
6 See also
7 References
8 Further reading
9 External links
Life

Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany.[2] His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.[3][4]

American cable television network ESPN later reported claims made in the Italian press that Paul the Octopus had been caught in April 2010, by Verena Bartsch, off the island of Elba.[5]

The animal rights organization PETA argued that it would be cruel to keep Paul in permanent confinement. Sea Life Centres responded that it would be dangerous to release him, because he was born in captivity, and is not accustomed to finding food for himself.[6]

According to DPA, local businessmen in O Carballiño a town in Galicia, Spain collected around €30,000 as a "transfer fee" to get Paul as the main attraction of the local Fiesta del Pulpo festival.[7] Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nevertheless.[8]

Among accusations of betrayal by the German newspaper Westfälische Rundschau, the Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero promised to send a team of bodyguards to protect Paul, while the environment minister Elena Espinosa said she would file Paul under the endangered species status so that Germans do not eat him. [9]

Paul is expected to die before the UEFA Euro 2012, as octopuses like Paul live on average no more than two years. Its owners said there would be no more predictions, effectively sending Paul into retirement.[10]

Divination


The two plastic boxes which are presented to Paul. The food items are visible in the left-hand corners.
Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament.[2][4][11] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate the contents of) was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[12]

Paul's apparent success was comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelharter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.[13][14]

Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1/2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelharter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and only the successful animals gains public attention after the fact.[13][14] However, if Paul or other octopuses[15] felt attracted for whatever reasons to the flagged boxes of Germany or Spain, their predictions would be much more exact than tossing a coin. This applies only for ongoing international football tournaments, but would fail for any other question.[citation needed]

Potential biases


Germany (11)

Spain (2)

Serbia (1)
Flags picked by Paul
Roquain went on to admit that chance was not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could have been choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.[14]

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue.[16][17] Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolor consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, was Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.[16] Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.[18]

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags."[19] Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag.[20] However, Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."[21]

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions.[22] Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell.[20] According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.[23]

Another potential bias may be spatial preference or related factors such as light intensity. On six out of seven predictions for the World Cup (no information about Germany-Australia) the octopus chose the right-hand box (from the camera point of view), skipping only the box with the English flag. On four out of six predictions, the German flag was also on the right-hand box, the exceptions being matches with England and Spain. Thus choosing which flag will go to the right-hand box may have influenced the predictions.

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selected one box per game.[22] A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.[14]

Whilst the choice of box may have been biased, these choices, with or without inherent bias, were performed before each match and predicted an, at the time, unknown outcome. A bias toward picking Germany would have increased the success rate for the octopus' World Cup predictions, but a question remains as to whether the success rate was above that reasonably expected given any bias. In any case, bias on the part of the octopus does not affect the outcome of a later football match itself (unless the prediction itself affects the players psychologically).

Results


Paul holds a press conference, 6 July 2010.
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final.[24] Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%.[25]

2010 FIFA World Cup

Paul's accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, endowed him with celebrity status.[2] Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia, Ghana, England, Argentina, Spain, and Uruguay.[26] His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook.[2] Paul's keeper, Oliver Walenciak, responded by saying "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."[27]

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed.[28] The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten.[29][30] In response, Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.[31][32] Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final.

Results involving Germany

Euro 2008
Opponent Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
Poland group stage 8 June Germany 2–0 Correct
Croatia group stage 12 June Germany 1–2 Incorrect
Austria group stage 16 June Germany 1–0 Correct
Portugal quarter-finals 19 June Germany 3–2 Correct
Turkey semi-finals 25 June Germany 3–2 Correct
Spain final 29 June Germany[2] 0–1 Incorrect

Paul picks Germany over Uruguay on July 9, 2010.
World Cup 2010
Opponent Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
Australia group stage 13 June Germany[33] 4–0 Correct
Serbia group stage 18 June Serbia[33] 0–1 Correct
Ghana group stage 23 June Germany[33] 1–0 Correct
England round of 16 27 June Germany[34] 4–1 Correct
Argentina quarter-finals 3 July Germany[27] 4–0 Correct
Spain semi-finals 7 July Spain[35] 0–1 Correct
Uruguay 3rd place play-off 10 July Germany[36] 3–2 Correct
Results not involving Germany


Paul picks Spain over the Netherlands on July 9, 2010.
Teams Tournament Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
Netherlands vs. Spain World Cup 2010 final 11 July Spain[37] 0–1 Correct
Odds

Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of 12 or more successful predictions in 14 attempts is 0.56%, as given by the binomial distribution.[38] And the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is 1/28 = 0.39%.[39] The first three matches were in the group stage where the outcome could have been a win, loss, or tie, resulting in a 1/3 probability of getting the result correct and highlighting a problem in the design of the task.

Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England, after that he made four correct predictions. The chance of those final four predictions being correct is 1/24 = 6.25% (odds 16/1).

Retirement

On July 12, 2010, Paul retired from making predictions.[40] Paul's owners stated "He won't give any more oracle predictions - either in football, or in politics, lifestyle or economy. Paul will get back to his former job, namely making children laugh."[40] As a reward for his accurate predictions, aquarium staff presented him with his very own replica World Cup trophy garnished with his favourite food - mussels.[40]

Similar oracles

Some other oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the Chemnitz Zoo in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay, and Anton the tamarin eating a raisin representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet of Singapore picked the Netherlands to win the final.[41][42][43]

See also

Cephalopod intelligence
Shooting the messenger
References

Footnotes
Notes
^ Christenson, Marcus. "Psychic octopus Paul predicts Spain to beat Holland in World Cup final", The Guardian, 9 July 2010.
^ a b c d e "World Cup 2010: 10 things you didn't know about Paul the psychic octopus", The Telegraph, 7 July 2010, retrieved 7 July 2010